BRIDGWATER and West Somerset MP Ian Liddell-Grainger has not said whether he will be backing Theresa May's crunch vote on Tuesday.

In a column for the Bridgwater Mercury, the Conservative MP outlines the predicament MPs find themselves in and why 'the only certainty is uncertainty'...

HOW big is your majority? Can you play the numbers game with a “Cameron’s Den” (number 10) of Ulstermen?

Are you ready for “Legs Eleven” or the “Gateway to Heaven”? If so, eyes down for Brexit Bingo in the totally unpredictable House of Commons.

There have been two rebel victories in the past few days that even the rebels did not foresee. The Government now needs Parliament’s permission to put up taxes if Britain crashes out of the EU.

Ministers say this is a small inconvenience. Labour reckons it spells the end of the “No Deal” option. And the Prime Minister must come up with Plan B in three days flat if her own deal fails in the Commons.

What follows is my guide to what might happen: On Tuesday, after five days debating the whole subject yet again, there will be a Parliamentary vote on the Prime Minister’s Deal.

She put it off before Christmas. She is adamant that it will not be delayed a second time.

But you never know.

As I write, the opponents of a negotiated exit still look too numerous to save this Deal. Unless, of course, Jean Claude Juncker offers to do without the dreaded Irish Backstop. Or takes the pledge. Both outcomes are extremely unlikely.

If the Deal is doomed the PM could have another go at twisting arms in Brussels.

But she would need more time, and that would involve revoking, or changing, 'Article 50' the legal mechanism ticking away to a deadline of March 29.

Technically this could be stretched or withdrawn altogether. Neither would be easy or free from embarrassment. There are several other possibilities to add extra confusion. How about a second referendum? No thank you say many of us. It might take a year to organise and time is pressing.

But the scale of Parliamentary rebellions often depends on the precise wording of amendments. Amendments only result in votes if Mr Speaker permits them. Mr Speaker is a law unto himself.

So, anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen clearly does not know very much at all.

The Government might even accept a Labour amendment to get Mrs May’s deal through.

Or we could be facing a vote of confidence in the PM if her strategy implodes. Maybe a General Election to follow. The only certainty I can promise is uncertainty – and that is the uncomfortable truth.

MP for Bridgwater and West Somerset